000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161526
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 10N177W TO 06N124W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

...SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO CUTOFF LOWS...ONE OVER NW MEXICO AND 
THE OTHER NEAR 23N138W...ARE SEPARATED BY A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 16N118W TO 30N124W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ROUNDING THE SECOND LOW BUT UNLIKELY NEAR THE 
FIRST LOW AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 
ASSOCIATED TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF 
THE AREA. 

...TROPICAL PACIFIC...
TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS...ONE NEAR 13N117W AND THE OTHER JUST E 
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. 
THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
11N120W TO 06N123W...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 
130W.

$$
BELL/BERG