000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W TO 05N85W TO 08N97W TO 
07N104W TO 09N115W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W AND 95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W AND FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 110W TO 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH NEW MEXICO SW TO S OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N110W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW 
IS LOCATED NEAR 23N139W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT E OF THIS LOW IS 
SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. A HIGH 
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 124W TO AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WELL N OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH 
EMANATING FROM THE SW US WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE NWD 
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO W/CENTRAL MEXICO OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY BUT THEN 
BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE CONTINUES TO 
DOMINATE THE REGION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32138W SW TO 
20N128W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED AND IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE FURTHER REDUCING THE TRADE WINDS. 

TROPICAL PACIFIC...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONNECTS TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS...ONE NEAR 
13N118W AND THE OTHER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE AREA 
E OF 130W. THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER 
RIDGES EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 12N116W TO 05N122W 
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N116W TO 06N125W. 

$$
WALLACE