000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W TO 09N90W TO 07N102W TO 
09N114W TO 04N126W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 
96W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH NEW MEXICO SW TO S OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A CUTOFF LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 
23N140W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT E OF THIS LOW IS SUPPORTING A BROAD 
AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 123W TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WELL N 
OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE SW US WILL 
CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO 
W/CENTRAL MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEAR 
STATIONARY BU T THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. AT THE SURFACE...A 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 
32136W SW TO 20N121W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FURTHER REDUCING THE 
TRADE WINDS. 

TROPICAL PACIFIC...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONNECTING TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS...ONE 
NEAR 12N122W AND THE OTHER JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND COVERING THE AREA E OF 130W. THE EASTERN 
UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. A 
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER RIDGES EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH 
ALONG 12N115W TO 05N121W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 
03N111W TO 06N118W. THE ASCAT SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED 
A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 05N89W FORCING THE ITCZ AXIS 
NWD. THIS IN TURN IS GENERATING FRESH WINDS THE AREA OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. 

$$
WALLACE