000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 7N85W 8N97W 7N114W 4N124W 
5N140W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
LINE FROM 5N90W TO 4N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W AND 103W.  

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NW TEXAS 
ACROSS NW MEXICO TO 21N115W COVERING BAJA CALIFORNIA TO CENTRAL 
MEXICO. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE W N OF 28N W OF 
120W TO 140W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE REGION WITH 
THE UPPER LOW ENE OF THE HAWAII. THE EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED 
TO AMPLIFY JUST A LITTLE FARTHER S THEN SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS NWD OVER 
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH THE 
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N135W SE TO 20N118W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE 
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REDUCING THE 
TRADE WINDS W OF 125W.  

TROPICAL PACIFIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 105W ANCHORED OVER THE 
YUCATAN WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 115W 
ANCHORED NEAR 7N125W. THIS IS INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH 
BETWEEN THE TWO AND ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO. 
THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ 
EXTENDING FROM 10N115W TO 4N119W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM W OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. 

PLEASE NOTE...MAY 15 MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
HURRICANE SEASON. BASED ON THE LATEST AVERAGES...EVERY YEAR 15 
NAMED STORM FORM...9 OF WHICH BECOME HURRICANES AND 4 OF THOSE 
HURRICANES WOULD BE OF CATEGORY 3 OR GREATER IN STRENGTH ON THE 
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS JUNE 
1ST WITH BOTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN PACIFIC SEASONS ENDING 
NOVEMBER 30TH. 

$$
WALLACE