000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 6N84W 9N100W 7N114W 3N125W 
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION 
FROM 3N TO 10N E OF 95W AND FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 99W AND 108W. 

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO 
SW TO 23N113W COVERING BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. HIGH 
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE W N OF 26N FROM 120W TO 136W. A 
SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS W OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LOW E OF 
THE HAWAII NEAR 22N144W. THE EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG FARTHER SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...WHICH WILL PULL MOISTURE NWD TOWARD THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND WEST CENTRAL MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE REGION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N135W SE 
TO 18N116W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REDUCING THE TRADE WINDS W OF 125W.  

TROPICAL PACIFIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 105W ANCHORED OVER THE 
YUCATAN WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 112W 
ANCHORED NEAR 8N124W. THIS IS INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH 
BETWEEN THE TWO AND ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO. 
THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ 
EXTENDING FROM 11N115W TO 3N199W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. 

PLEASE NOTE...MAY 15 MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
HURRICANE SEASON. BASED ON THE LATEST AVERAGES...EVERY YEAR 15 
NAMED STORM FORM...9 OF WHICH BECOME HURRICANES AND 4 OF THOSE 
HURRICANES WOULD BE OF CATEGORY 3 OR GREATER IN STRENGTH ON THE 
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS JUNE 
1ST WITH BOTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN PACIFIC SEASONS ENDING 
NOVEMBER 30TH. 

$$
WALLACE