000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 09N93W TO 09N110W TO 
05N177W TO 03N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W-91W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W-99W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 98W-102W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 115W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AZ SW TO 
23N166W THEN WESTWARD AS A SHEAR AXIS BEFORE MERGING WITH A 
CUTOFF LOW ENE OF HAWAII. A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE N OF THE AREA 
IS BEGINNING TO PUSH THE SHEAR AXIS SWD. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH 
CORE WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TOWARD THE SRN 
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS 
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR 19N139W AS A RESULT OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
EAST OF THE CUTOFF LOW. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND 
DIG FARTHER SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL PULL 
MOISTURE NWD TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WEST CENTRAL 
MEXICO.

TROPICAL PACIFIC...
A RIDGE CONNECTING TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS...ONE JUST E OF THE 
YUCATAN AND THE OTHER LOCATED AT 11N125W...DOMINATES MUCH OF THE 
TROPICAL BELT. A DEEP-LAYERED INVERTED TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE 
RIDGE AT ABOUT 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
FROM 06N-09N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH AT THE MOMENT.

$$
BELL/BERG