000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141017
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 08N83W TO 07N91W TO 11N104W TO 4N112W TO 
3N125W TO 05N133W TO 04N138W TO 04N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 87W-97W AND 101W-117W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 34N108W 
TO 32N110W TO 24N115W TO 27N140W.  FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS N OF 
TROUGH AXIS...BUT ABUNDANT TRPCL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BY 90 KT 
JET CORE MEANDERING JUST S OF TROUGH.  MOISTURE CONTAINED IN 
SWATH TRAPPED BETWEEN TROUGH AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED 
AT 9N128W HEADS FOR SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NE MEXICO 
AND WRN TEXAS FEEDING 1003 MB LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
SECOND ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN GUATEMALA AND SRN YUCATAN PENINSULA 
HELPS BRING MOISTURE INTO GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF TEXAS COLD 
FRONT.

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK TROUGH ALONG 107W HAS MINOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS DRY AIR 
MASS W OF IT SEEMS TO DISSIPATE PREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTION.  

BROAD HIGH PRES 1030 MB CENTERED AT 35N133W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
15N107W JUST AHEAD OF ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH.  GLOBAL MODEL HAVE 
HIGH PRES MOVE N FURTHER WEAKENING FRESH TRADES AND CUTTING OFF 
SOURCE OF N SWELLS OFF COAST OF CALIFORNIA THAT WERE ENCROACHING 
INTO NE CORNER OF E PAC. 

SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 130W FROM 04N-11N HAS NO ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

$$
WALLY BARNES