000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N78W TO 04N105W TO 06N122W TO 
03N142W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HAS BECOME DRAPED ACROSS THE 
SUBTROPICAL WATERS ATTACHED TO A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW 
UNITED STATES AND A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW ENE OF HAWAII. THE 
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SRN ARIZONA SW TO 25N120W THEN W AS THE 
SHEAR AXIS TO 27N140W BEFORE MERGING WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 
22N149W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO THE 
AREA FROM THE N...PUSHING THE TROUGH EWD AND THE SHEAR AXIS SWD. 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET...WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 60-70 KT...EXTENDS 
FROM 18N140W TO 28N110W OVER NW MEXICO. A 1027 MB SUBTROPICAL 
HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N137W AND IS PRODUCING 
GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH RESULTANT 8-10 
FT NORTHERLY SWELLS MOVING INTO THE AREA DOWN THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TROUGH OVER THE 
SW UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND DIG FARTHER 
S...RESULTING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED NWD TOWARDS 
THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND W/CENTRAL MEXICO BY THU. 
THIS COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY 
FOR THAT AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

TROPICAL PACIFIC...
THE TROPICAL BELT OVER THE PACIFIC IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS...CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
AS WELL AS FARTHER W NEAR 10N129W. A RIDGE CONNECTS TO THE TWO 
FEATURES BUT IS BISECTED BY AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH ALONG 105W 
WHICH REACHES NWD INTO W/CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TROUGH HAS BECOME 
DEEP-LAYERED WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION ALSO ALONG 105W. ONLY 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE TROUGH FROM 8N-14N 
BETWEEN 100W-107W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 131W 
S OF 9N AND IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE 
COVERAGE...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 122W-129W.

$$
BERG