000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W TO 10N110W TO 5N120W TO 6N130W 
TO 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
S OF AXIS FROM 80W-84W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 88W-94W 
AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 112W-117W AND WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 135W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 NM W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N131W WITH A 90-100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET ON ITS 
SE PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 16N140W TO 18N130W TO 30N116W. 
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT DRY AIR ALOFT SURROUND THE 
UPPER LOW N OF 18N W OF 120W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS 
BEING ADVECTED NE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD CIRRUS 
DOWNSTREAM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS MEXICO 17N113W. 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MEXICO SWD TO 
HONDURAS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.

A 1007 MB LOW ANALYZE ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 7N87W STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ E OF THE LOW. A SECOND 1008 MB LOW 
IS CENTERED NEAR 9N113W. THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME SCATTERED. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRES 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 105W. BROKEN/OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 15N W OF 120W AND OFF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

$$
DGS