000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101520 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT MAY 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W 07N95W 09N110W 04N120W 06N131W 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 77W-92W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG FROM 03N-14N BETWEEN 107W-118W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC... A MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N132W WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ON ITS SE PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 15N140W TO 17N130W TO 30N113W. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT DRY AIR ALOFT SURROUND THE UPPER LOW N OF 18N W OF 120W...AND THIS HAS FOSTERED AN OVERCAST/BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS W OF 114W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ALONG BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND OROGRAPHICALLY- INDUCED CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS MAINLY IN THE STATE OF CHIHUAHUA. JUST DOWNSTREAM...A DOMINATING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SE MEXICO NEAR 19N98W WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 500 NM OF ITS CENTER...SPANNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MEXICO...NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA... AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. TROPICAL PACIFIC... DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE ITCZ AND TODAY IS FOCUSED PRIMARILY AROUND TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 NM SSW OF SAN JOSE COSTA RICA NEAR 06N86W WITH WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED IN THE CLOUD FIELD AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION ORIENTED PRIMARILY E/W ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES W ABOUT 5-10 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FARTHER W...A SECOND 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08N114W AND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM LIES IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES TO THE NE/SW AND WEAK TROUGHS TO THE SE/NW...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOR CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE. HOWEVER...THE TSTM ACTIVITY IS ORIENTED PRIMARILY IN A NE/SW BAND AND IS NOT ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER FLOW W OF THIS SYSTEM IS WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WITH VERY LITTLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...KEEPING ALL CONVECTION W OF 120W ALIGNED LINEARLY ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. $$ BERG