000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 05N90W 
TO 09N106W TO 05N120W TO 03N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 
84W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 360 NM AND 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
106W TO 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSHING INTO 
THE WESTERN U.S. THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REINFORCE A MEAN 
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION EXTENDING FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH A 
PROMINENT CLOSED LOW NEAR 24N126W TO 16N140W. THIS PATTERN 
SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE BRISK NW TO N FLOW N OF ABOUT 
28N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W THROUGH AT LEAST FRI BEFORE DECREASING 
OVER THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...N WINDS AGAIN TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE 
OVER PART OF THIS SAME AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE 
OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT 
IN A MIX OF N WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL SHOULD CONTINUE ARRIVING 
WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES W OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. PEAK SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE FRI AND EARLY 
SAT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING SUBSTANTIALLY LATER THIS WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE...ENHANCED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE 
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE 
TRADES BLOWING GENERALLY FROM 7N TO 22N W OF ABOUT 120W. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE TRADES 
SHOULD DECREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...CAUSING SEAS OF 7 TO 9 
FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND S SWELL TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 6 TO 
7 FT BY SUN.

ELSEWHERE...A NEW S TO SW SWELL GROUP FROM THE SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC 
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 8 FT 
CROSSING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 92W AND 130W AND REACHING AS FAR N 
AS 10N FRI AND SAT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEAS SHOULD BEGIN 
DIMINISHING BY SUN.

FINALLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOSTLY 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF 10N110W... 
LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 9N107W. THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS 
THAT THIS IS THE SAME CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WHICH HAS TRACKED S OF 
10N W OF 95W THE LAST FEW DAYS.  ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
AND CIMMS CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS CURRENTLY SHOW A DIFFLUENT 
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM...A CURRENT OF STRONG WESTERLY 
FLOW LIES JUST TO THE W AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY POSSIBLE 
DEVELOPMENT.  


$$
KIMBERLAIN