000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080958 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU MAY 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE LINE...05N78W TO 04N90W TO 08N110W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W TO 120W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... A CUT OFF LOW IS CENTERED AT 22N128W. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS LOCATED NEAR 12N106W. SUBSTANTIAL SW FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IN OUR REGION EAST OF 125W. THIS MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED OVER MEXICO...PARTS OF THE SW UNITED STATES...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE... THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE THE DOMINANT 1031 MB HIGH JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AND THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE ITCZ. THE MODERATE GRADIENT OF SURFACE PRESSURE IS CAUSING NE WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION AS WELL AS 20 KT N TO NW WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE FORMER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE THE LATTER MAY WEAKEN BUT STILL HAVE SOME N TO NW SWELL AFFECTING THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SWELL SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BEGINNING TOMORROW AND THROUGH SATURDAY. NO GAP WIND EVENTS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING NOR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N108W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HOLD ON TO THE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MOVE IT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNTS OF VORTICITY ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AND A SOMEWHAT STABLE ENVIRONMENT LIKELY ARE THE REASONS FOR THE LACK OF INTEREST IN THE MODELS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. $$ LANDSEA