000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...04N77W TO 
03N85W TO 07N113W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 121W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N123W TO 21N119W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE BORDER OF 
MEXICO AND NW TEXAS.  A SECOND CUTOFF LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE 
PACIFIC NEAR 20N135W.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IN 
CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG HIGH NEAR 12N108W IS PRODUCING STRONG 
SW FLOW.  THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXCEEDS 100 KT OVER NW MEXICO 
AND IS HELPING TO ADVECT IN SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND UPPER 
CLOUDINESS OVER A LARGE SECTION OF THE NE PACIFIC...MEXICO...AND 
TEXAS.  

SURFACE...
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1033 MB NORTH OF OUR AREA IS 
DOMINATING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  MODERATELY STRENGTHED NE 
TRADEWINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF 115W AND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE STRONG HIGH 
AND THE STRONG SURFACE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND MEXICO IS CAUSING 
SOME ENHANCED NW WINDS JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  
THESE NW 20 KT WINDS SHOULD RELAX WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS 
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES PROGRESSING EASTWARD.  RELATED TO THESE 
FEATURES...A 8 FOOT N TO NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING INTO OUR AREA 
FROM GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH NEAR THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST.  THESE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 
HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING.  A WEAK GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT 
IS OBSERVED FROM THE ASCAT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.  THIS MAY 
CONTINUE FOR APPROXIMATELY ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE THE CARIBBEAN 
TRADEWINDS WEAKEN.  FINALLY...A SOUTHERLY SWELL COMING UP FROM 
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CYCLONIC ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN PROVIDING 8 
FOOT SWELL JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR.

WHILE THE ITCZ IS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE FROM 106W TO 121W...NO 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED TO BE 
ASSOCIATED THE CONVECTION.  NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST 
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS MAY 
BE DUE TO TOO MUCH WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS INSUFFICIENT 
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY.

$$
LANDSEA