000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 11.5N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE POINT 7N111W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREAS 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 04.5N116W TO 10N119W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE TROUGH COVERS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA NORTH OF A 
LINE 30N105W TO 24N129W TO 15N132W TO 17N140W. THE AREA IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE ARE TWO 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS IN THE TROUGH. ONE IS WELL DEFINED 
AND CENTERED NEAR 31N111W. THE CIRCULATION IS RATHER SMALL 
COVERING MEXICO NORTH OF 27N FROM 108W TO 115W. THE OTHER IS NOT 
WELL DEFINED AND CENTERED NEAR 21N137W. THE CIRCULATION IS 
LARGE WITH A RADIUS OF 360 NM. BOTH CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE 
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. THE CENTER OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL 
MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED 
STATES. THE LARGER CENTER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH 36 HOURS 
THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST BUT STILL BE OVER THE AREA IN 48 HOURS. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W. REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A WEAK TROUGH.

GAP WINDS OF NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
LL