000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
07N105W TO 05N120W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N100W TO 10N105W TO 07N110W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE 
AREA FROM 05N TO 10N FROM 116W TO 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE TROUGH COVERS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA NORTH OF A 
LINE 30N100W TO 23N129W TO 15N133W TO 15N140W. THE AREA IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE ARE TWO 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS IN THE TROUGH ONE IS WELL DEFINED 
AND CENTERED NEAR 31.5N113W. THE CIRCULATION IS RATHER SMALL 
COVERING MEXICO NORTH OF 27N FROM 109W TO 117W. THE OTHER IS NOT 
WELL DEFINED AND CENTERED NEAR 22N135.5W. THE CIRCULATION IS 
LARGE WITH A RADIUS OF 360 NM. BOTH CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE 
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. THE CENTER OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL 
MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED 
STATES. THE LARGER CENTER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH 36 HOURS 
THEN TURN MORE NORTHEAST BUT STILL BE OVER THE AREA IN 48 HOURS. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W. REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A WEAK TROUGH.

GAP WINDS OF NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
LL