000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051528 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON MAY 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ...05N77W TO 06N99W TO 05N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 121W AND 126W. ISOLATED MODERATE SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 89W AND 105W. W OF 110W... A DEEP MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CUT-OFF CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH IS HOVERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH EXTENDING WELL SW THROUGH 21N125W TO 18N140W. BROAD LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS...COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 35N140W...HAS LED TO INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE NOT ONLY TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS A SECOND JET STREAM DISTURBANCE RACES SE INTO THE REGION...EJECTS THE CALIFORNIA CUT-OFF LOW E INTO THE SW CONUS....AND REINFORCES THE PATTERN. HOWEVER ...STRONG WINDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE WELL N OF THE AREA. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE COMMON N OF 25N FROM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 140W...THOUGH SHIP REPORTS...BUOY OBSERVATIONS...AND OTHER DATA INDICATE A NEW NW SWELL GROUP WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 10 FT MIGRATED SE OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SEAS N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W AND 131W BY TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD VERY SUBTLY SUBSIDE A BIT BY MID-WEEK. ELSEWHERE...ENHANCED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH ARCS SW INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC... KEEPING TRADES NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES IN AN AREA ROUGHLY RUNNING FROM 6N TO 20N W OF 120W. IN FACT...MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THIS REGION SHOW A LARGER EXPANSE OF 20 KT WINDS ...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION W OF 130W. SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND NOW RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FT OVER THIS AREA...WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO THE S. HOWEVER ...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT TUE AND WED IN MIXED NE WINDS WAVES AND A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL PROPAGATING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE EQUATOR EXTENDING FROM THE DATELINE TO 90W. THE ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW OF 30 TO 80 KT IS PRECEDING A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF TROPICAL CONVECTIVE FORCING...WHICH HAS MOVED FROM THE INDIAN OCEAN INTO THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC THE LAST TWO WEEKS. THIS CONVECTIVE SIGNAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL PACIFIC PACIFIC IN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...THOUGH THE COOLER-THAN -AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA SHOULD SQUASH ANY ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. E OF 110W... A DOMINANT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH AN AXIS JUST BEYOND 110W. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PULLING A FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NORTHWARD FROM THE ITCZ W OF ABOUT 95W...WITH THE MOISTURE FANNING OUT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RATHER BROAD ENVELOPE OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 103W. SOME OF THE CONVECTION HAS LEFT BEHIND A DYING MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 8N93W...BUT THIS IS NOT COINCIDENT WITH WHERE A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITHIN THE ITCZ. THAT FEATURE IS LOCATED CLOSE TO 6N99W AND APPEARS MORE POORLY- ORGANIZED THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INITIALIZE THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL...IT DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY CHANCE OF GENESIS ...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ABOUT TO IMPINGE UPON THE SYSTEM FROM THE W BEGINNING TODAY OR TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NO WINDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER NOTED. HOWEVER...WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY BRIEFLY REACH 20 KT IN A FEW AREAS LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE. SEAS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 FT OFFSHORE IN A CONTINUATION OF THE LONG PERIOD SW SWELL PROPAGATING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EXTRATROPICS. GOING FORWARD...NO AREAS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA OR WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK. $$ KIMBERLAIN