000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051004 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 06N95W TO 05N110W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 06N 
TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 
04N TO 08W BETWEEN 112W TO 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
A VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST.  AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 
21N125W AND THEN WESTWARD TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 
20N138W.  NONE OF THESE FEATURES HAVE ANY SIGNATURE AT THE 
SURFACE AT THIS TIME.  STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT SOUTH OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS IS ADVECTION SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ 
TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO.  HOWEVER 
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OBSERVED WITH THIS...EXCEPT FOR 
THE MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE SIERRA MADRES.  

AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCED BY THE HIGH 
PRESSURE NORTH OF OUR AREA AT 37N140W IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD N 
TO NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION.  
THESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS ESPECIALLY 
SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF ABOUT 115-120W.  A NORTHERLY SWELL IS 
BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER 
BETWEEN 125W TO 135W.  THIS SHOULD PEAK IN ABOUT A DAY WITH 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 11 FT.  THE 
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD FORCE AN 
ACCELERATION OF SW WINDS TO 20 OR 25 KT IN THE NORTHERNMOST GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA TOMORROW NIGHT...AS THE UPPER FEATURE MOVES 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES.  THIS ENHANCEMENT MAY BE 
SHORT-LIVED AS THE WINDS SHOULD RELAX THERE BY WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED THIS EVENING ALONG 101W...EMBEDDED 
IN THE ITCZ...SOMEWHAT FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN ESTIMATED 
EARLIER.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT DIMINISHED DURING THE 
EVENING.  DESPITE FAIRLY SMALL VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE 
DISTURBANCE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS A BIT TOO DRY AND STABLE 
FOR A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS 
TIME.   

$$
LANDSEA