000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050325 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W TO 06N81W TO 07N90W TO 
05N106W TO 07N118W TO 04N133W TO 04N137W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W 
AND 93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THEN CENTRAL COAST 
OF CALIFORNIA IS RAPIDLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD A 
QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...FROM 30N121W THROUGH 22N127W TO 
19N140W. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A MORE HIGH ZONAL 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MON...MERGING AND SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING 
THE TROUGH...AND BUILDING A MID TO UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER 
MX AND THE SW U.S. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WIND AND SEAS 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING HEAVY SWELL 
ORIGINATING FROM NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER 
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OFF SHORE WATERS. A FETCH OF 8 TO 10 FT 
SEAS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 
28N BETWEEN 120W AND 133W MON MORNING. WINDS OVER THE 
AFOREMENTIONED AREA SHOULD PERSIST 15-20 KT. NE TRADES TO 20 KT 
AND SEAS NEAR 8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PORTION 
OF THE AREA...W OF 120W...THRU TUE AFTN.        

E OF 110W...
BROAD MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE 
REGION...E OF 100W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLIES ARE 
SUPPORTING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF 104W AND ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ. A FEW 
OF THE SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INLAND OVER SOUTHERN 
MX/GUATEMALA. PERSISTENT SLOW WESTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE 
TROUGH AXIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS ALONG 05N96W 
THROUGH 08N96W TO 11N96W. LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED. IN 
FACT...DEEP CONVECTION AREAL COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED 
CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE 
NAVY COAMPS SUGGEST A CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH MON 
NIGHT...THEN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
BUILDS WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MX.   

$$
ROBERTS