000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042140 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 08N88W TO 05N104W TO 
06N120W TO 04N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W AND WITHIN 70 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 112W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CA IS PROPAGATING 
SOUTHWARD TOWARD A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDING 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...FROM 
30N122W TO 21N132W. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A MORE 
HIGH ZONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MON...SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING 
THE TROUGH...AND BUILDING A MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER MX AND THE 
SW U.S. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WIND AND SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE A N SWELL ORIGINATING FROM THE CALIFORNIA 
OFFSHORE WATERS ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 
28N BETWEEN 120W AND 133W AROUND MON MORNING.  WINDS SHOULD 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT NEAR THE SAME TIME 
PERIOD...BASICALLY JUST A SEAS EVENT. NE TRADES TO 20 KT AND 
SEAS NEAR 8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE 
AREA...W OF 120W...THRU TUE AFTN.        

E OF 110W...
BROAD MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE 
REGION...E OF 100W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLIES ARE 
SUPPORTING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF 104W AND ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ. A FEW 
OF THE SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INLAND OVER SOUTHERN 
MX/GUATEMALA. PERSISTENT SLOW WESTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE 
TROUGH AXIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS ALONG 04N95W 
THROUGH 07N96W TO 10N95W. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. IN FACT...DEEP CONVECTION 
AREAL COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS 
AGO. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD MOTION 
THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MX.   


$$
ROBERTS