000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041753 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN MAY 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED RUNS ALONG 07N80W TO 06N97W TO 05N110W TO 06N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 150-300 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 120W AND BETWEEN 180-360 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ANCHORED FROM THE U.S. WEST COAST THROUGH 30N123W TO 18N140W AND SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH...A VIGOROUS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW OREGON SHOULD DIVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AND CUT OFF IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MON...SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS...COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 40N136W...SHOULD MAKE FOR INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATER TODAY AND MON. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE LAST SIMILAR EVENT FROM LATE THIS WEEK...STRONG WINDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO N OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IMMEDIATELY W OF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST THIS MORNING SHOULD FURTHER SUBSIDE...WHILE A COMBINATION OF N SWELL AND N WIND WAVES CAUSES SEAS TO BUILD TO 7 TO 11 FT GENERALLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 119W AND 134W BY TUE. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD EJECT THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW INTO THE SW CONUS TUE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE GOING INTO MID-WEEK. ELSEWHERE...ENHANCED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NE OF HAWAII ARCS SW INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC...KEEPING TRADES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN AN AREA ROUGHLY RUNNING FROM 6 TO 20N W OF 127W. EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES CONTINUE TO SHOW SPOTTY 20 KT WINDS COVERING THIS REGION...THOUGH THEIR COVERAGE APPEARS LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND N SWELL COVER MUCH OF THIS REGION BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 6 TO 7 FT EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER... MODELS INDICATE A LARGER AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES DEVELOPING BY TUE...ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM 8 TO 19N W OF 118W. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE EQUATOR EXTENDING FROM THE DATELINE TO 100W. THE ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW OF 30 TO 70 KT IS PRECEDING A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF TROPICAL CONVECTIVE FORCING...WHICH HAS MOVED FROM THE INDIAN OCEAN INTO THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC THE LAST TWO WEEKS. THIS SIGNAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL PACIFIC PACIFIC IN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...THOUGH THE COOLER-THAN -AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA SHOULD SQUASH ANY ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. E OF 110W... A QUASI-STATIONARY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM COLOMBIA NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO ALLOWING ANOMALOUS AND SOMEWHAT MOIST SLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO LIE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION. UNDERNEATH THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW... SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A POORLY-ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...WITH WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS NEAR 6.8N96W. A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COINCIDENT WITH THIS TURNING. IN ADDITION...THIS AREA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 36 TO 48 HOURS...THOUGH ITS APPEARANCE THIS MORNING SUGGESTS SOME MINOR INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH PRIMITIVE CURVED BANDS NOW SURROUNDING THE CIRCULATION. MODEL GUIDANCE DID INITIALIZE THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL BUT DOES NOT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF GENESIS...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING UPON THE SYSTEM FROM THE W AFTER ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NO WINDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER NOTED. SEAS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 FT OFFSHORE IN A CONTINUATION OF THE LONG PERIOD SW SWELL PROPAGATING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EXTRATROPICS. NO AREAS MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA OR WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. $$ KIMBERLAIN