000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032207 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT MAY 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 04N77W 06N93W 05N107W 08N128W 06N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 80 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... QUASI-STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM 30N125W THROUGH 20N134W THEN TO 19N140W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYER CONDITIONS ALOFT ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE AXIS N OF 16N W OF 120W. SHALLOW LOW MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS SPREADS OVER THIS NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CUT-OFF TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY SUN NIGHT WITH AN APPROACH OF MID-LATITUDE PULSE DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NW PACIFIC. A JET FINGER WITH A 100 KT MAXIMA IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A RATHER LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPILLING OVER THE NW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MX. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ENCOMPASSES THE MAJORITY OF THE E PORTION OF THE AREA E OF 120W. AT THE SURFACE...SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY MON MORNING WHEN STRENGTHENING NLY FLOW N OF AREA ALONG THE SW CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A N SWELL 0F 8 TO 10 FT OVER NRN PORTION E OF 132W. E OF 110W... MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MX SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD OVER EXTREME EAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN GULF OF MX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHER PRESSURE A THE SURFACE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MX. THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE SW MX COAST. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH WITH A FEW WEAK MESO-LOW SWIRLS ALONG THE AXIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...FROM 01N93W THROUGH 06N93W TO 09N93W. THE MAJORITY OF THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION IS SITUATED ALONG THE ITCZ. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. $$ ROBERTS