000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030331 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT MAY 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W 08N82W 05N95W 05N100W 06N104W 08N121W 08N127W 07N131W 05N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 95 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 118W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CUT-OFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...EXTENDS FROM 30N126W THROUGH 22N132W TO 16N140W. NEXT MAJOR MID-LATITUDE PULSE IS EXPECTED TO DIG S OFF OF THE COAST OF CA...AMPLIFYING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF FEATURE AND CREATING A MORE HIGH ZONAL UPPER PATTERN SUN MORNING. A MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION IS SITUATED JUST DOWNSTREAM ALONG 23N120W TO 8N133W...AND IS REFLECTED WEAKLY AT THE SFC. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 09N E OF 125W AND S OF A JETLET MOVING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA. AT THE SFC...A BUILDING 1029 MB HIGH N OF AREA NEAR 41N141W IS DRIFTING NE AND IS CREATING WINDS NE TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...HOWEVER...EARLIER 20 KT N WINDS OVER NE PORTION ALONG BAJA COAST HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 20 KT. ASSOCIATED 8 TO 10 NW SWELL STILL EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 8 FT OR LESS BY SAT AFTN. E OF 110W... A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDS W ALONG 11N FROM A ANTICYCLONE SITUATED JUST W OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N90W. DIFFLUENT UPPER SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE SUPPORTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY N OF THE ITCZ AND E OF 90W. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT ON GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER S MX AND NORTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHWARD TO THE SW COAST OF MX AND ADJACENT WATERS W OF 95W. AT THE SFC...PERSISTENT...BUT NOW LESS THAN 20 KT...NORTHERLY FLOW GENERATED BY A LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALONG THE MX COAST IS PRODUCING A RELATIVELY SMALL REGION OF 8 TO 9 FT SWELLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA AND OVER THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...SUBSIDING BY SAT NIGHT. $$ ROBERTS