000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W 06N79W 07N84W 05N93W 08N112W 
06N122W 07N125W 04N137W 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.   

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A RATHER BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CUT-OFF FROM THE 
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...EXTENDS FROM 30N127W THROUGH 22N132W 
TO 16N140W. NEXT MAJOR MID-LATITUDE PULSE IS EXPECTED TO DIG S 
OFF OF THE COAST OF CA...AMPLIFYING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF 
FEATURE AND CREATING A MORE HIGH ZONAL UPPER PATTERN SUN 
MORNING. A MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION IS SITUATED JUST 
DOWNSTREAM ALONG 18N128W TO 7N134W...AND IS REFLECTED WEAKLY AT 
THE SFC. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 09N E OF 126W AND 
S OF A JETLET MOVING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY 
TROUGH AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA.
AT THE SFC...A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N136W IS DRIFTING SW AND IS 
GENERATING WINDS NE 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND 
SIMILAR STRENGTH N WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COAST TO TO NEAR 126W. LARGEST SWELLS TO 11 FT ARE CONFINED TO 
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OFF OF BAJA...AND SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 8 
FT BY SAT MRNG.

E OF 110W...
A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDS W ALONG 11N FROM A 
ANTICYCLONE SITUATED JUST W OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N90W. DIFFLUENT 
UPPER SOUTHEASTERLIES ARE SUPPORTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY N OF THE ITCZ AND E OF 90W. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN 
SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT ON GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE ANTICYCLONE 
OVER S MX AND NORTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH SHOULD 
SHIFT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHWARD TO THE SW COAST OF MX 
AND ADJACENT WATERS W OF 95W. 
AT THE SFC...AN ENHANCED AREA OF NORTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED 
BY A LEE TROUGH ALONG THE MX COAST HAS GENERATED A SMALL REGION 
OF 8 TO 9 FT SWELLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA AND OVER THE 
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE 
SHORT-LIVED...SUBSIDING BY SUN.

$$
ROBERTS