000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W TO 05N90W TO 07N106W TO 
04N120W TO 06N128W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND EMBEDDED 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 120W ALSO FROM 7N TO 
9N BETWEEN 114W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A SPRAWLING MID TO UPPER RIDGE CENTERED S OF MEXICO NEAR 
12N93W DOMINATES THE PATTERN ACROSS THIS REGION. SLY FLOW ON ITS 
W SIDE IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 4N-14N 
BETWEEN 104W-110W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE S AND SE PORTION OF THE 
HIGH IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
81W-90W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS HIGH ONLY DRIFTING N THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND...SO SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION REMAIN POSSIBLE 
IN SIMILAR REGIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE 
SFC...THE ONLY AREA OF WINDS THAT MEET THE HIGH SEAS CRITERIA IS 
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17N-22N E OF 105W. W TO NW WINDS 
ARE NEAR 20 KT IN THIS REGION PRODUCED BY THE TIGHTENED PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO. 
THIS AREA WILL CHANGE LITTLE BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ON SUN. 
MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST SWELL OF UP TO 6 FT WITH 16-18 SECOND 
PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICAN COASTS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY SUNDAY.

W OF 110W...
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE PATTERN OVER THIS REGION WITH THE 
ELONGATED AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N125W TO 20N135W TO 2N110W TO 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 105W. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS PERTURBING 
THE ITCZ FROM 5N128W TO 11N125W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS COUPLED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 
114W-118W AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 120W-122W. ELSEWHERE...THE 
STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CLOUDINESS. AT THE SFC...A 1026 MB HIGH SITUATED NEAR 
31N143W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF NE 20 KT TRADES ON ITS S 
PERIPHERY AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE N WINDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA AND 
NRN BAJA COASTS TO ABOUT 127W. ASSOCIATED NW SWELL HAS KEPT SEAS 
UP TO 11 FT OFF N BAJA...BUT SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...MIXED NW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SW 
SWELL IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS OVER 
MUCH OF THIS REGION. BOTH OF THESE SWELL TRAINS WILL SUBSIDE 
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  

$$
CANGIALOSI