000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE APR 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 05N78W 06N92W 05N111W 09N120W 06N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 92W-96W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM OF AXIS FROM 118W-123W AND 126W-128W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N130W TO 27N140W 
HAS VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 300 NM SE OF AXIS AND ENTIRE REGION 
NW OF AXIS.  JET CORE 100 KT ADVECTS MOISTURE ALONG BROAD SWATH 
SE OF AXIS TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO.  

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE GYRE AT 08N128W HAS RIDGE EXTEND E TO 
15N101W.  RIDGE CREST FLATTENED BY ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE 
MAINTAINING ZONAL WINDS FROM 15N-20N.  DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF RIDGE 
AXIS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ W OF 117W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 01N102W ALSO INTERACTING WITH 
RIDGE TO PRODUCE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO 
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ FROM 96W-109W.  THIS 
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED WITHIN THE LAST 6 HRS.  ELSEWHERE NM OF 
10N AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY UNDER BROAD RIDGE THAT EXTENDS 
FROM ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 08N90W TO CENTRAL MEXICO.

GLOBAL MODELS INTENSIFY JET CORE TO 110 KT BUT THEN FLOW GOES 
ZONAL AS SHORTWAVE STEERS NE AWAY FROM BASIN.

AT THE SURFACE....
HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB AT 32N137W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
15N110W PRESSING AGAINST BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND KEEPING 
STRONG WINDS N OF 25N E OF 120W AND HEALTHY TRADES FROM 10N-20W 
W OF 120W.  TRADES WEAKEN AS HIGH PUSHES E BUT NW WINDS ALONG 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES