000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211006
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON APR 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS 06N77W TO 07N84W TO 03N97W TO 06N117W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 88W...AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
101W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...A CUTOFF UPPER CYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 
23N145W...SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER RIDGE N OF 30N ALONG 135W. THE 
RIDGE IS FLATTENING OUT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING 
EWD NEAR 44N146W. THIS WILL RESULT IN A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH 
NEAR 33N135W CONTINUING TO SHIFT SE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES 
E...NLY WINDS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE BAJA COAST...ACCOMPANIED 
BY NLY SWELL TO 13 FT. THESE WINDS DIMINISH BY TUE AS THE HIGH 
SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE SE AND WEAKENS. TRADES S OF THE HIGH 
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...A SPLIT FLOW 
PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES S OF 10N...ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ AS NOTED ABOVE.

E OF 110W...UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 
5N103W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IS 
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ AS NOTED ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS WITHIN 
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION INTERSECTING THE ITCZ NEAR 90W. 
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE N IS 
KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CONVECTION FREE. MEANWHILE A 
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW SURFACE PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND 
HIGH PRES WEST OF BAJA IS PRODUCING FRESH NW WINDS OFF THE 
MEXICAN COAST NEAR CABO CORRIENTES N OF MANZANILLO. GAP WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT...BUT 
SOME BRIEF SURGES TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN