000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05N77W 06N87W 05N100W 08N116W 
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 
COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 06N. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG FROM 
02N-07N BETWEEN 83W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 
98W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO SLICE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS W 
OF 110W WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST WINDS LYING FROM 16N140W TO 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE 
JET ARE APPROXIMATELY 70 KT BUT THEN ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY TO 
75-80 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES. 
SCATTERED CIRRUS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET...LYING UP TO 800 NM 
SE OF THE DEPICTED AXIS. ELSEWHERE...A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS 
STILL OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA NEAR 26N135W BUT IS BECOMING 
INCREASINGLY SHEARED AND MOVING TO THE NE...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
BE ABSORBED BY STRONGER FLOW TO THE N OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AS WELL AS 
N OF 27N E OF 120W IS PRODUCING A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 
3000-4000 FT AND IS THEREFORE SUPPORTING A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS 
DECK N OF 20N W OF 114W. THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING AROUND A 1030 MB 
HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N136W WHICH INCIDENTALLY IS PRODUCING 
GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS A RESULT OF THE 
STRONG WINDS...9-14 FT NW SWELLS HAVE BEGUN MOVING DOWN THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT THE HIGHEST BREAKING WAVES ALONG 
THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE N OF PUNTA EUGENIA. FARTHER S IN 
THE TROPICS...DIFFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW AND A SURFACE TROUGH WITH 
AN OVERLYING UPPER RIDGE NEAR 116W IS PRODUCING ENHANCED 
CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 114W-125W.

E OF 110W...
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS IN PLACE E OF 110W ALTHOUGH THERE ARE 
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER-SCALE CIRCULATIONS PRODUCING 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE 
MEXICO NWD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CO-EXISTS WITH A 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH LIES FROM BELIZE TO 18N110W. HENCE... 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES N OF 10N E OF 105W WITH ONLY A 
FEW CLOUDS SPECKLING THE REGION. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER LIES 
FARTHER S DUE TO TWO UPPER LOWS LOCATED NEAR 03N104W AND 01N85W. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE LIES PRIMARILY N AND W OF THE EASTERNMOST LOW 
AND ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 86W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 83W-97W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO FORMED ALONG THE 
COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR...MEANDERING UP TO 45 
NM OFFSHORE.

GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH 20 
KT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WHEN THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FROM THE 
NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE.

$$
BERG