000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202118
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05N77W 06N87W 05N100W 08N116W 
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N-08N 
BETWEEN 81W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 113W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO SLICE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS W 
OF 110W WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST WINDS LYING FROM 17N140W TO 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE 
JET ARE APPROXIMATELY 60-65 KT BUT THEN ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY TO 
70-75 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
SWINGING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SCATTERED CIRRUS 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET...LYING UP TO 800 NM SE OF THE 
DEPICTED AXIS. ELSEWHERE...A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS STILL OVER 
THE NW PART OF THE AREA NEAR 25N135W BUT IS NOW ON THE MOVE 
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LITTLE MOVEMENT...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE 
ABSORBED BY STRONGER FLOW TO THE N OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AS WELL AS 
N OF 26N E OF 120W IS PRODUCING A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 
3000-4000 FT AND IS THEREFORE SUPPORTING A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS 
DECK N OF 20N W OF 114W. THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING AROUND A STRONG 
1032 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N137W WHICH INCIDENTALLY IS 
PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS A RESULT 
OF THE STRONG WINDS...8-13 FT NW SWELLS HAVE BEGUN MOVING DOWN 
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT THE HIGHEST BREAKING WAVES 
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE N OF PUNTA EUGENIA. FARTHER S 
IN THE TROPICS...DIFFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW AND A SURFACE TROUGH 
WITH AN OVERLYING UPPER RIDGE NEAR 115W IS PRODUCING ENHANCED 
CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-130W.

E OF 110W...
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS IN PLACE E OF 110W ALTHOUGH THERE ARE 
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER-SCALE CIRCULATIONS PRODUCING 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE 
MEXICO NWD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CO-EXISTS WITH A 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH LIES FROM BELIZE TO 17N110W. 
HENCE...MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES N OF 10N E OF 105W WITH 
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS SPECKLING THE REGION. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
LIES FARTHER S DUE TO TWO UPPER LOWS LOCATED NEAR 04N103W AND 
01N85W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE LIES PRIMARILY N OF THE EASTERNMOST LOW 
AND ALONG WITH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 06N87W IS PRODUCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
81W-96W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF COSTA RICA...WESTERN PANAMA...COLOMBIA...AND ECUADOR.

GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH 20 
KT OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WHEN THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FROM THE NOCTURNAL LAND 
BREEZE.

$$
BERG