000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181622 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI APR 18 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1600 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 04N78W 02N93W 04N107W 02N120W 02N135W 03N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 05-07N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N-05N W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 100W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N129W AND EXTENDS TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N137W DROPPING S ABOUT 10-15 KT. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SE THROUGH 17N134W TO 13N129W...THEN BECOMES RATHER SHARP SE TO 07N121W AND TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 03N116W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N137W WILL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NE ON SUN ON STRONG SW FLOW. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N123W TO 24N130W TO 18N140W. TO THE NE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM 17N132W TO 23N126W...AND TO NE OF THE AREA TO ACROSS CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS ARE INDICATED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 60-80 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA WHERE THE FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED HERE IS PART OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A MEAN AXIS RUNNING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA SWD TO 26N114W AND TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING E JUST OVER THE W COAST MEXICO NEAR MANZANILLO. AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEING CHANNELED NEWD TOWARDS SRN BAJA AND NRN MEXICO BY THE JET STREAM. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 12N110W TO 10.5N116W TO 11.5N122W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N137W AND EXTENDS TO 25N123W TO 20N117W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W 10-15 KT IS ALONG 106W...AND ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM TO ITS W. A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 05N103W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVING SW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NE FLOW ARE SEEN W OF 130W. E OF 100W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST ABOUT READY TO EXIT NE MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N AND E OF 111W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED HERE...AND ALSO OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA OUTSIDE THE ITCZ. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM SE HONDURAS S THROUGH 07.5N88W AND TO THE EQUATOR AT 88W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAS IGNITED A LARGE COMPLEX OF NUMEROUS STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR ERN PART FROM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 4N-7N AND W TO 80W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE S OF 8N AND E OF 8N89W UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. $$ AGUIRRE