000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162126
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 02N78W 01N83W 06N106W 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
80W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 
102W-114W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 
119W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A NEARLY STATIONARY CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 25N139W 
AND IS ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE A GRAND TOTAL OF 325 NM TO THE E 
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS THE STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW BYPASSES 
IT TO THE N. THE SUBTROPICAL JET BORDERS THE LOW TO ITS 
SE...EXTENDING FROM 10N140W TO 26N120W THEN MERGING WITH THE 
POLAR JET OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. MAXIMUM JET SPEEDS ARE NEAR 
60 KT WITHIN THE JET BETWEEN 128W-138W AND AS IT CROSSES THE 
BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. AN AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
LIES ACROSS NW MEXICO AND OFFSHORE THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHICH IS 
FOSTERING FAIR SKIES AS FAR W AS 125W. A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS 
FIELD LIES W OF 125W AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FARTHER 
S...THE JET DIVERGES WITH ANOTHER AIR STREAM WHICH CROSSES THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 136W...AND THE BROAD DOWNSTREAM DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 120W-137W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES FROM 15N115W TO 00N112W AND IT 
TOO IS PRODUCING DOWNSTREAM DIFFLUENCE WITH ENHANCED ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 102W-114W.

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIES ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL PACIFIC 
WATERS...ANCHORED BY A HIGH JUST OFF THE COSTA RICA COAST NEAR 
09N87W WITH AXIS EXTENDING WWD ALONG 10N. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE 
LIES E OF LINE FROM THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER TO 00N110W AND 
IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THAT AREA...EXCEPT 
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING 
INLAND ACROSS THE MEXICAN RIVIERA AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS 
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION IN THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE NE.

GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ENDED EARLY TODAY 
AND NOW WINDS ARE ONLY 20-25 KT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT BY THU AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
ARE NEAR 20 KT AT THE MOMENT...AND SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HRS.

$$
BERG