000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142214
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 4N85W 8N98W 4N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 
118W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 
97W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. SHIP WWYY REPORTED 50 KT WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EARLIER THIS MORNING...IN LINE WITH AN ASCAT PASS 
SHOWING 45 KT WINDS. THE STORM CONDITION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO GALE CONDITIONS TUE...AND 
BELOW GALE BY WED. FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH 20 KT NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER 
DATA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE ELY FLOW OUT OF PAPAGAYO COMBINING 
WITH THE NE TO E FLOW OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 95W TO 100W NEAR 
10N...GENERATING 8 TO 10 FT ELY SWELL. WAVEWATCH IS DEPICTING 
MODEST SW SWELL INTO THE AREA AS WELL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
RESULTING FROM THE STRONG GAP FLOW THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC IS ALSO 
AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 
97W. THIS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS WINDS DIMINISH. 
MEANWHILE...UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 10N IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. 

W OF 110W...UPPER RIDGE IS EVIDENT ALONG 125W N OF 
20N...TRAILING A WEAK SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. 
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BLOCKING A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO 
THE NW U.S. PACIFIC COAST. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE NE OF HAWAII 
IS RIDING N OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WAVE IS IN PHASE WITH 
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FURTHER TO THE SE...GENERALLY S OF 12N 
ALONG 120W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. GFS AND 
EURO GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SOUTHERN TROUGH BECOMING CUT OFF N 
OF THE ITCZ UNDER THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH CREATING A WEAK REX 
BLOCK. IT WOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODEST CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ. UPPER RIDGE BEHIND THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE U.S. 
WEST COAST IS SUPPORTING A QUASISTATIONARY 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH 
NEAR 41N157W...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST. A PERSISTENT TIGHT 
GRADIENT SE OF THIS HIGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG NE FLOW GENERALLY W OF 120W AND N OF 15N...AS WELL AS 
MODEST TRADE FLOW FURTHER S. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
48 HOURS. INCREASED NLY FLOW ALONG U.S. WEST COAST ON EAST 
PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH S OFF THE NRN BAJA 
COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY 8 TO 10 FT NLY SWELL THROUGH MID WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN