000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON APR 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ CENTERED ALONG 6N77W TO 5N84W TO 6N92W TO 5N97W TO 9N112W 
TO 5N126W TO 6N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W TO 95W... 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 118W...AND WITHIN 150 NM  
OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RARE LATE SEASON STORM EVENT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. COLD AIR 
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FILTERING THROUGH THE 
TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CURRENTLY. 
LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 50 KT WIND WAS ALREADY ONGOING.  
WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IN THE LOWER 
80S. THIS WILL ADD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MIX DOWN THE STRONGER 
WINDS...LENDING CREDENCE TO WIND SPEEDS ALREADY REACHING STORM 
CONDITIONS. FURTHER S...FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADES IN THE 
CARIBBEAN ARE PROMPTING A PUSH OF 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...AS PER MORNING SCATTEROMETER DATA. MODELS PICK UP 
ON THIS A LITTLE LATER...BUT SHOW THE EVENT PERSISTING THROUGH 
MID WEEK. A PERSISTENT WEAK 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 7N92W 
DRIFTING WESTWARD AND WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 110W.

W OF 110W...
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS N OF 20N AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
EXITS E OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO SW U.S. FOLLOWED BY A 
MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 28N132W. THIS IS OBSTRUCTING EWD 
PROGRESS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC FURTHER TO THE NW. AS A RESULT...A SURFACE TROUGH NW OF 
THE AREA HAS STALLED N OF THE AREA. STRONG 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 41N159W MOVING LITTLE EWD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 
TO 48 HOURS...BUT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE 
HIGH WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS INTO THE FAR NW PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH TUE. IN ADDITION...FRESH TRADES 
PERSIST TO THE S.

$$
WALLACE