000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N83W 5N105W 3N120W 4N128W 3N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 80-100 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 
108W TO 114W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 6N125W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST 
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W PORTION W OF 
AROUND 130W. MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CONUS 
INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 21N125W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
LOCATED BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THE UPPER RIDGE. SW 
WINDS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE 
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NEWD TOWARDS SRN BAJA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. 
A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN/GULF OF 
HONDURAS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N WEST OF 110W 
PRODUCING TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITHIN THE RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 115W. NW 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
DUE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN 
U.S. AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO. A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 7N87W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM SW QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW. A 
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF 
THE AREA ON SUN BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. COMPUTER 
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
INCREASE UP TO 30 KT BEGINNING ON SUN AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS.  

$$
GR