000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112129
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 4N110W 3N125W 3N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 106W TO 
114W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 20 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W 
AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W PORTION W OF AROUND 130W. 
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE REGION 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
20N125W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THE UPPER RIDGE. SW WINDS E OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH ARE ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP 
TROPICS NEWD TOWARDS SRN BAJA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. A RIDGE 
ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN/GULF OF HONDURAS COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N WEST OF 110W 
PRODUCING TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH IN THE RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 
115W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 8N88W DRIFTING SW. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM WEST AND 
SOUTH OF THE LOW. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE 
FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON SUN BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS 
AND SEAS. ALSO...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL PRODUCE A COLD SURGE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH  
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODELS... 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE 
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AFTERWARD...LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A GALE 
EVENT MAY OCCUR.   

$$
GR