000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 4N85W 3N100W 3N110W 6N115W
4N125W 5N140W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 114W-117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W-138W...WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 122W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING SW 10-15 KT IS CENTERED NEAR 
31N127W WITH A RIDGE TO NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SRN PORTION
OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS STATES SW INTO 
THE REGION ACROSS NRN BAJA AND TO 28N119W WHERE IT BECOMES A 
SHEAR AXIS TO 18N129W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT N OF 24N 
BETWEEN 120W-131W. A JET STREAM BRANCH IS THE S OF THE TROUGH 
STRETCHING STRETCHING FROM 19N120W NE TO 23N120W AND TO ACROSS 
SRN BAJA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE JET ARE MAXING OUT TO 60 KT IN THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT. 
AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS 
BEING TAPPED FROM THE DEEP CENTRAL TROPICS BY THE JET AND 
CHANNELED NEWD TOWARDS SRN BAJA...CENTRAL MEXICO AND TO ALONG 
THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS DEPICTING 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NE OF A LINE 
FROM 26N112W TO 23N121W TO 16N130W AND TO 16N140W. BROAD 
MID/UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED JUST W OF THE REGION WITH EXTENSIVE 
MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE REGION. 
THESE CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE SUBSIDENCE AREA. 
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SEEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ W OF 
122W.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N131W 24N123W TO
17N110W. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT N OF 10N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
MOVING W 10-15 KT EXTENDS FROM 8N120W TO 4N122W...AND IS 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION SOME BETWEEN 122W-125W.

E OF 110W...

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GENERALLY COVERS THIS 
AREA WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NRN S AMERICA WNW 
THROUGH 6N78W 7N85W 10N96W TO 10N110W. A VERY MOIST FLOW PATTERN 
THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOUND TO THE E OF 90W IS 
SUSTAINING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OF A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N88W. EXPECT THIS 
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS. THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS.
 
GAP WINDS...LATEST NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO N AT 20 KT BEGINNING ON SUN AND
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE SUN AFTERNOON OR EARLY SUN EVENING
...POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 40 KT...AS A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT 
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSHES FAR S THROUGH MEXICO AND THE WRN
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. GALE WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO WED. WITH
STRONG SURGE OF NLY WINDS INVADING THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA BEHIND 
THE FRONT...THIS WILL ALSO TRANSFER WWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
AS NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEGINNING EARLY 
MON AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH LATE WED.

$$
AGUIRRE