000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN APR 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N81W 6N85W 8N95W 4N110W 3N123W 
2N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 100W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W 
AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
TWO PROMINENT FEATURES DOMINATE THE REGION'S WEATHER PATTERN.
THE FIRST IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX LOCATED W OF 
THE AREA NEAR 26N146W AND HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 
6-12 HOURS. THE SECOND IS A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY MID/UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N114W. A NEGATIVELY TILTED 
TROUGH EXTENDS SSE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC THROUGH 20N144W 
TO THE FAR WRN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 9N135W. PERSISTENT DEEP 
LAYERED SWLY FLOW WAS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH INTO THE AREA N OF 
14N W OF 130W. FLOW TURNED ANTICYCLONIC WITH RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE AREA N OF 14N BETWEEN 105W-130W WITH MEAN RIDGE AXIS 
THROUGH 32N130W SWD THROUGH 25N125W TO THE ANTICYCLONE NOTED 
ABOVE. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE DEEP 
CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC IS BEING CHANNELED NEWD INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH A 
GENERAL TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL 
MEXICO. CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS WERE IN THE 80-90 KT
RANGE IN THE AREA FROM 20N-25N E OF 117W.

OVER THE DEEP TROPICS...MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE 
HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 5N105W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE RIDGE GENERALLY FROM 5N TO 
20N BETWEEN 100W AND 128W. SUBSIDENCE WAS INHIBITING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING 
ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW W OF THE REGION NEAR 24N148W WAS 
DRIFTING TO THE SW. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND 1027 MB 
HIGH PRESS NEAR 33N135W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SE WINDS 
OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 20N TO 29N W OF 135W...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS 
(8-10 FT IN RANGE) W OF 140W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GRADUALLY PULLING THE AREA 
OF WINDS W OF THE AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS 
EVENING INDICATED NW-N WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 25N E OF 120W TO THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW WAS NEAR 
18N107W. 

E OF 105W...
THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
SEA EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA TO A BASE OVER 
THE FAR E PACIFIC NEAR 8N97W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ITCZ 
CONVECTION...MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC E OF 100W. THE 
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NRN CARIBBEAN BY WED 
OF NEXT WEEK.
   
$$
COBB