000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051531 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT APR 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 4N84W 4N89W 6N99W...THEN DIFFUSE TO...6N104W 2N120W 3N130W 2N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 65 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE 80 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 111W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 120W... DEEP CUT-OFF LOW...W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS TO A POSITION NEAR 24N148W. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE LOW ON SUN. AMPLITUDE OF MID-LATITUDE PULSE IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN THE FIELDS AND NOW SUGGEST LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND GRADUAL FILLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRESSURE GRADIENT INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAKENING OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND A HIGH ANCHORED N OF THE AREA IS GENERATING 20 KT E TO SE WINDS N OF 20N W OF 130W WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 10 FT BY TOMORROW AFTN. 80 TO 100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET FINGER AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER MOISTURE PLUME ENTERS THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE BASE OF THE DEEP LOW...THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 28N125W BEFORE BECOMING MORE ZONAL. STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 6N140W TO UPPER HIGH CENTER NEAR 19N119W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRIER CONDITIONS EXIST S OF 20N AND E OF 126W. S OF RIDGE AXIS AND W OF 120W...DIFFLUENT UPPER EASTERLIES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ. E OF 120W... MID TO UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES EASTWARD N OF 20N OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MX. CONVECTIVE INHIBITING CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ. SHIP REPORTS SUPPORT THIS MORNINGS ASCAT OVERPASS OF 20-25 KT NLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AREA W OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND E OF 120W. MODERATE NLY FLOW SHOULD TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH MON. $$ ROBERTS