000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 4N88W 6N102W 2N117W 2N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 118W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 8WW AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
LARGE CUT OFF LOW IS LOCATED W OF THE AREA NEAR 26N150W AND HAS 
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS CUT OFF LOW 
HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN AMPLIFYING A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 32N125W SWD THROUGH 25N122W TO A LARGE 
QUASI-STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NEAR 
13N120W. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE DEEP 
CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC IS BEING CHANNELED NEWD INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH A 
GENERAL TRAJECTORY TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO.  
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS WERE IN THE 80-100 KT IN THE 
CHANNELED REGION. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS...MID-UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 5N105W. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE RIDGE
GENERALLY FROM 5N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. SUBSIDENCE WAS
INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS 
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 118W-127W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY 1015 MB LOW W OF THE REGION NEAR 
24N149W WITH A DYING OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG 27N150W 25N145W TO 
19N150W. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND 1029 MB HIGH 
PRESS NEAR 33N135W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 
KT N OF 17N W OF 130W  WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS W OF 140W. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS 
GRADUALLY PULLING THE AREA OF WINDS W OF THE AREA. HIGH 
RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NW-N WINDS 20-25 KT N OF 20N 
E OF 121W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRES 
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE SW UNITED STATED AND THE 
RIDGE ALLOW REMAINS INTACT. QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA ALSO 
INDICATED A WEAK 1010 MB SFC LOW NEAR 17N105W. 

E OF 100W...
THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
SEA EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA TO A BASE OVER 
THE FAR E PACIFIC NEAR 8N90W. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH
IS AIDING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF THIS ITCZ CONVECTION...MODERATE TO STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
TROPICAL E PACIFIC E OF 100W. 

GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE N0N-EXISTENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
WEAK PRES PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE 
REGION INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AND SE SECTION OF 
MEXICO.
   
$$
COBB