000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 7N87W 4N89W...THEN DIFFUSE 
TO...2N94W 1N100W 5N120W 6N132W 5N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE 65 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 95W AND FROM 5N TO 7N 
BETWEEN 117W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 120W...HIGH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES N OF 19N WITH 85 KT 
SUBTROPICAL JET FINGER ALONG 26N. ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER 
MOISTURE N OF 19N AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED JET IS SPREADING 
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND N MX. REMAINING 
PORTION OF AREA IS QUITE DRY DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANCHORED MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MX AND ADJACENT WATERS. AT THE 
SURFACE...A 1258Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT MODERATE 
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
SHIP REPORTS WITHIN THE AREA SUGGEST THAT THE SEAS ARE RUNNING 
NEAR 8 FT. LITTLE CHANGE OVER THIS PARTICULAR AREA IS EXPECTED 
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT OF 20 KT 
COULD POSSIBLY BE LASTING LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT AS 
STIFF/MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

W OF 120W...LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NW 
OF AREA...DIGGING SW TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING 
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF A 
LINE 30N125W 17N140W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT EASTERLIES S OF 10N 
ARE ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ. AT THE 
SURFACE...SEAS OVER THE REGION ARE GENERALLY BELOW 8 FT WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA TO 8 FT IN THE NW PORTION...W OF A 
LINE 26N140W 30N133W. NE TO E TRADES N OF 10N HAVE BEEN VARYING 
20 KT OR LESS IN THIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  

$$
ROBERTS