000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 08N83W 02N100W 05N122W 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180NMI S OF AXIS FROM 85W TO 93W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 180NMI ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 115W TO 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA AT 
34N126W.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS 
30N123W TO 21N140W.  THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AND NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SOUTH OF 30N.  A 
WEAK AND STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH IS AT 27N120W.  BECAUSE OF THE 
WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED 
FRONT...ONLY ONE SMALL REGION IN THE TRADEWINDS CONTAINING 
SURFACE NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT WAS OBSERVED NEAR 12N130W AS SEEN 
BY QUIKSCAT.  THESE MODEST TRADEWINDS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED 
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  A SOMEWHAT SURPRISING 20 KT PAPAGAYO 
GAP WIND EVENT WAS OBSERVED FROM BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT EARLIER 
TODAY.  THIS SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT BY TOMORROW.  
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A 
REBUILDING SURFACE HIGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BOOST NW 
WINDS UP TO 20 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG BOTH SIDES OF 
SOUTHERN BAJA.  THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND POSSIBLY FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL 
DAYS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA.  A WEAK LOW OF 1010 MB ALONG 
THE ITCZ AT 5N91W AND A TROUGH ON THE ITCZ ALONG 133W ARE BOTH 
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME CONVECTIVE FEATURES...THOUGH IT LIKELY IS A 
BIT EARLY FOR ANY SERIOUS THREAT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
AT THIS POINT IN THE YEAR.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
14N105W.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EARLIER MENTIONED DEEP 
LAYER LOW IS CAUSING STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS...UP TO 100 KT 
OVER NORTHERN BAJA.  LESS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS 
ARE BEING ADVECTED IN THIS FLOW OVER BAJA AND NW MAINLAND MEXICO 
TODAY.

$$
LANDSEA