000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020937 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED APR 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N78W 06N90W 03N101W 05N115W 06N133W 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 113W. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 120W... A WEAKENING GALE CENTER NEAR 36N136W IS HEADING ESE AT 25-30 KTS ...WHILE CARRYING A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N133W 22N140W THROUGH THE NW PART OF THE AREA. RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY CORRESPOND WELL WITH MODEL GUIDANCE...BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE IS FILLING AND SHOULD CONTINUE FILLING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT SHEARS EASTWARD INTO THE SW CONUS. FURTHER EVIDENCE OF ITS GENERAL WEAKENING IS BORNE OUT IN THE WEAKER NWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE STORM SYSTEM...WHICH PEAKED AROUND 20- TO 25-KT EARLY YESTERDAY AND IS NOW LESS THAN 20 KT. THE BRIEF BURST OF NWLY FLOW W OF THE FRONT THE LAST DAY OR TWO WAS ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FT GENERALLY N OF 27N AND W OF 137W. IN ADDITION...SWLY FLOW OF 20 KT PRECEDING THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 29N HAS ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 8 FT IN A GENERAL WLY SWELL. WINDS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE N OF 25N AND E OF 130W INTO THU. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING IN THE VICINITY OF 35N150W SHOULD CLOSE OFF AND BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN WLY JET ACROSS THE N PACIFIC...BECOMING TRAPPED AROUND 30N147W WITHIN 48 HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER GALE CENTER IS FORECAST TO FORM NW OF THE AREA AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH LATE WEEK WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SE TO S FLOW OF UP TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN W TO NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE W OF 120W...QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT MODERATELY STRONG TRADES BETWEEN 10N AND 20N FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE TEMPORARILY RELAXED BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEK ONCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD BACK UP TO 7 TO 8 FT OVER THIS AREA IN NE WIND WAVES. E OF 120W... LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST PACIFIC E OF 120W...WITH EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASSES INDICATING A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME IS KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 FT WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE MEXICAN COAST. HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT LIE CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR E OF 120W IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL... ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. ALOFT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SPRAWLING...MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE REGION FROM 120W TO CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPRESSING NEARLY ALL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY CLOSE TO THE ITCZ. AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE DOMINANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...REAL-TIME NCEP RE-ANALYSIS DATA INDICATE ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OF 20- TO EVEN 40-KT ARE S OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE S OF 18N AND E OF 110W. FINALLY...AFTER THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE GALE CENTER CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA SHIFTS INTO THE SW CONUS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SURGE OF NW TO N FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT SHOULD DEVELOP EITHER SIDE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY BRIEF...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD LAST FROM LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI AND COULD LOCALLY CAUSE SEAS TO TO BUILD TO 8 FT W OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER THE PLAINS THU...A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE DOWN THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL SAT. $$ KIMBERLAIN