000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W 05N90W 03N102W 04N127W 
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W 
AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 133W 
AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA 
AND IS CURRENTLY AT 33N132W.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY REACHES INTO OUR AREA ALONG 30N129W TO 24W140W.  WHILE 
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT IS NORTH OF THE 
AREA...SOME CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BETWEEN 28N AND 30N FROM IR 
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA.  THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN MOVING MORE 
EASTWARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  
ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 
15N102W.  STRONG UPPER SW FLOW...UP TO 90 KT OVER BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND STRONGER FARTHER NORTH...BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW AND 
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND CIRRUS COVER OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MAINLAND MEXICO.  
ADDITIONALLY ...UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BETWEEN 10N AND 22N AFTER BEING 
GENERATED FROM THE ITCZ SOUTH OF HAWAII.  THE ITCZ IN OUR AREA 
IS SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE TODAY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION 
OCCURRING BETWEEN 130W AND 140W AND 110W AND 120W.

NO SURFACE GALES ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE REGION...NOR ARE 
THERE ANY LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A SMALL AREA OF 
20KT N WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FROM QUIKSCAT EARLIER TODAY JUST 
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING... 
THOUGH THE SAME WEAKENING WAS ANTICIPATED...INCORRECTLY...LAST 
NIGHT.  THERE ALSO EXISTS SOME 20KT WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH 
THE COLD FRONT...BOTH SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND W TO NW 
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE N WINDS LIKELY WILL BE MAINTAINED 
AS THE FRONT ITSELF WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EASTWARD.  THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY SEE 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS ON THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN LOCAL WINDS WAVES.  
NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENTS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
LANDSEA