000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010936 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE APR 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 07N78W 01N101W 04N120W 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 117W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER S OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W TO 102W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO WITHIN EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE NEAR 35N146W AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 31N133W TO 26N140W. DENSE... SPECKLED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POURING INTO THE REGION W OF THE FRONT...WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED CYCLONE REMAINS N OF THE AREA NEAR THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT. W TO NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE AFFECTING THE AREA WEST OF THE FRONT AND N OF 27N...WITH A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF 25 KT WINDS CLOSE TO THE NW BORDER. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL LIE NW OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE ASSOCIATED GALE CENTER. STILL THOUGH... THESE WINDS ARE GENERATING 8 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL...WHICH ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE OVER THE FAR NW. ELSEWHERE...A 0240 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CAPTURED THE STORM SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 31N129W TO 29N126W. SE 20 KT WINDS NEAR AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE A NARROW FETCH AND HAVE NOT BEEN ACTIVE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN 6 TO 7 FT NE OF THE BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A MASSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE SW MEXICAN COAST... SHOULD PREVENT THE CLOSED CYCLONE NW OF THE AREA FROM DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH. INSTEAD THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD SHEAR EASTWARD INTO THE SW CONUS AND BECOME ASSIMILATED INTO A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH...REPLACED BY A DEEPER CLOSED CYCLONE DROPPING SOUTHWARD JUST WEST OF 140W BY THU. IN RESPONSE...THE RELATED GALE CENTER NORTH OF THE AREA SHOULD WEAKEN AND TAKE A SIMILAR EASTWARD PATH...WITH NO MORE THAN 20- TO 25-KT NWLY FLOW ENTERING THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. WITH THE NW FLOW OF SHORT DURATION...NO MORE THAN 8 TO 9 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL SHOULD ARRIVE TODAY OVER THE FAR NW...WITH MUCH OF THIS SUBSIDING BY MID-WEEK WHILE SPREADING SE. 20- TO 25-KT SWLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF 26N AS IT UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS TODAY...WITH AROUND 8 FT WIND WAVES PROPAGATING OUT OF THE AREA AHEAD OF IT. ELSEWHERE...A 1022 MB SURFACE RIDGE NEAR 32N126W SHOULD DRIFT SE THROUGH WED...PUSHED OUT OF THE WAY BY THE WEAKENING GALE CENTER TREKKING EASTWARD. MODERATELY STRONG TRADES OF 20 KT ARE BLOWING SW OF THE RIDGE...GENERALLY IN A NARROW SWATH BOUNDED BY 6N132W TO 15N120W TO 16N132 TO 13N140W. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SE...8 TO 9 FT WIND WAVES PRESENT OVER MOST OF THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN RESPONSE TO A RELAXATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. NW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 27N AND W OF 122W...IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST SYSTEM TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE WEST AND PLAINS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH 8 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL LIKEWISE SUBSIDING BY LATE TODAY. FINALLY...LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST PACIFIC E OF 110W...WITH EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASSES INDICATING A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME IS KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 FT WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE MEXICAN COAST. HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT LIE CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR E OF 120W IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL..SPREADING TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. ALOFT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPRAWLING...MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE REGION FROM 110W TO CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPRESSING ALL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...EXCEPT NEAR THE ITCZ. ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OF 20- TO EVEN 40-KT ARE ALSO OBSERVED S OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE S OF 15N AND E OF 110W. $$ KIMBERLAIN