000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W 04N93W 03N109W 08N122W 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE 
AXIS E OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
105W-109W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD ALONG 
139W/140W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST ENTERED THE NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N139W TO 29140W. MOST OF 
THE ASSOCIATED DENSE CLOUD COVERS LIES N OF THE REGION...WHERE 
THE GREATEST LIFT AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EXISTS. A SPRAWLING UPPER 
HIGH IS SITUATED IN THE TROPICAL EPAC NEAR 14N101W AND A SMALLER 
LESS AMPLIFIED HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 5N138W. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT 
BETWEEN THE HIGHS AND THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING A PLUME OF 
MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WITHIN 
600 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 17N132W TO THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST NEAR 
27N113W. SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY N OF 28N E 
OF 123W AND N OF 10N E OF 110W DUE TO UPPER CONFLUENCE. THIS 
STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION OF DEEP 
CONVECTION. 

AT THE SFC...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS WEAKENING DUE TO A 
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING 1010 MB LOW NEAR 42N142W AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
BOUNDARIES. THIS HAS ALLOWED NE/E TRADES TO SLACKEN ACROSS THE 
REGION WITH 20 KT WINDS MAINLY CONFINED FROM 7N-18N W OF 125W. 
NLY WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 20 KT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA...BUT 
SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW THAT CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR 
SO. WITH BOTH OF THESE WIND REGIMES WEAKENING...THE MAIN WIND 
EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. AS 
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE REGION...WINDS AROUND 20 TO 
POSSIBLY 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 
26N/27N. NW SWELLS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT BEHIND THE FRONT 
LATE TOMORROW. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE ONLY DATA SOURCE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING 
HOURS IS ONE SHIP...CALL LETTERS DILE...WHICH IS REPORTING VERY 
LIGHT NE WINDS ABOUT 180 NM DUE W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SO 
WILL LIKELY DROP MENTION OF GAP WINDS IN THE 18Z PACKAGE.

$$
CANGIALOSI