000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG AXIS 08N82W TO 02N102W TO 05N122W TO 03N132W 
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 05N78W...AND FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W 
AND 93W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 10N116W TO 
06N123W TO 04N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE 
CONUS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N120W TO 23N130W TO 
13N138W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE HAS SPREAD SE INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 27N W OF 132W. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 30N110W TO 25N128W THEN THE BANDS 
WIDENS TO COVER THE UPPER LEVELS FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 128W 
AND 144W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N103W WITH A 
RIDGE W TO NEAR 09N129W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG AND JUST S OF 
THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 
130W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE CONCENTRATES INTO A PLUME WITHIN 360 
NM EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 10N122W TO 18N122W TO NEAR 25N114W 
WHERE THE MOISTURE IS EVAPORATING. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ALSO 
ENHANCED E OF 94W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE STREAMING NE ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 92W. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED N OF 
10N BETWEEN 110W AND 85W.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 05N91W 
HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND WILL DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE 
ANALYSIS FOR THE TIME BEING. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO 
THE REGION ALONG 27N140W TO 12N105W. NE TO E TRADES ARE NOTED SW 
OF THE RIDGE BUT HAVE WEAKENED TO 20 KT. A SURGE OF 20 KT NW TO 
N WINDS STILL EXISTS WITHIN 420 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COAST. BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH 
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION IN ABOUT 
24 HOURS...WEAKENING THE RIDGE. WINDS AROUND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED 
TO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH NW SWELLS INCREASING 
TO 10 FT OVER THE NW CORNER BY TUE.  

GAP WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF 20 KT NE TO E WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DROP MENTION.

$$
NELSON