000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3N78W 4N82W THEN BREAKS AND RESUMES ALONG 
5N94W 3N104W 5N120W 3N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS E 
OF 79W AND WITHIN 300 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W-123W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W-128W 
AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MID-UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF THE 
CONUS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 30N126W CONTINUING THROUGH 24N140W. MUCH 
OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS WELL N AND NE OF THE REGION OVER 
THE U.S. LEAVING A FAIRLY DRY SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT BENEATH THE 
AXIS...ESPECIALLY W OF 130W. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE LIES JUST SE 
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG 135W OR SO EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP 
TROPICS. A LARGE WELL DEFINED UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED OVER THE 
TROPICAL EPAC NEAR 15N95W EXTENDING A RIDGE TO 15N125W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W-128W. CONVECTION IS ALSO 
FIRING W OF 134W ENHANCED BY A SIMILAR REGIME. DEBRIS 
CIRRUS...FROM THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS BETWEEN 115-128W...IS 
FLOWING N AND THEN NE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA AND S CENTRAL 
MAINLAND MEXICO. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE REGION ...ESPECIALLY N OF 10N E OF 110W ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH.
    
AT THE SURFACE...A 1009 MB LOW HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE 
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS NEAR 6N90W. CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND 
EXPANDED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM N AND E OF 
THE CENTER AND WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. LONG-TERM 
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SUBTLE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WWD 
THROUGH THE CARIB TOWARD THE STATIONARY LOW. THIS FEATURE IS 
LIKELY IN PART THE ENHANCER FOR THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
OTHERWISE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDS SW INTO THE REGION FROM 
A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 30N154W. STIFF NE TRADES ARE 
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE SW PORTION FROM 7N-13N W OF 132W. A 
SURGE OF 20 KT NW TO N WINDS STILL EXISTS NEAR THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST. BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN AS 
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS...WEAKENING THE RIDGE. WINDS AROUND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH NW SWELLS INCREASING TO 
10 FT OVER THE NW CORNER BY TUE.  

GAP WINDS...A QSCAT PASS AROUND 12Z REVEALED 20 KT NE TO E WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS PASS WAS AT THE TIME OF THE 
EXPECTED DIURNAL WIND SPEED PEAK...WHICH IMPLIES THAT WINDS 
WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE 
CURRENT STATE ADDED THIS EVENT BACK IN THE HIGH SEAS PACKAGE AND 
AM EXPECTING SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WEAKER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR 
TOMORROW MORNING.  

$$
CANGIALOSI