000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N79W 8.5N88W 4N100W 4N112W 5N120W 4N130W
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS 
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 86W-89W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 136W-139W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHEARED MAINLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN MEXICO WSW
TO 24N122W TO 24N125W. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS 
RECENTLY ENTERED THE REGION THROUGH 30N135W AND EXTENDS SW TO A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 
21N140W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR 
12N142W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED FROM 22N-30N E OF 125W TO 
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. OVER THE ERN PORTION...A 
VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 
15N102.5W WITH A RIDGE WSW THROUGH 12N117W TO 10N126W TO 
7.5N138W. A PLUME OF ITCZ UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NNE 
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND TOWARDS CENTRAL 
MEXICO. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 
3N130W WITH A COL BETWEEN IT AND THE TROUGH JUST W OF THE 
REGION. OVER THE FAR ERN SECTION...A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER WRN COLOMBIA WITH A RIDGE WNW TO 8N90W. A 
COL REGION DENOTING RELATIVELY CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE IS 
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE MAIN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N102.5W. 
THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WRN 
CARIBBEAN SW TO 12N89W.
 
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND RESULTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS. ELSEWHERE...DIFFLUENT 
EASTERLIES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE TO AID
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG THE ITCZ MAINLY BETWEEN 115W-126W 
...AND 126W-139W. A RE-APPEARING 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED 
ON THE E PORTION OF THE ITCZ NEAR 8N88W. 
    
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA 
THROUGH 28N140W TO 26N127W TO 20N118W TO 16N112W. NE TO E TRADES 
OF 20 KT PERSIST SW OF THE RIDGE WITH SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. 
E OF THE RIDGE...N OF 22N E OF ABOUT 123W NW-N WINDS OF 20 KT 
ARE OBSERVED THERE WITH SEAS RUNNING 9 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. 
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WITH AN APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 
THE NW. NWP MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LOW WILL PASS 
JUST TO THE N OF THE REGION TUE AND WED WITH A TRAILING COLD 
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA N OF 25N...THEN QUICKLY LIFT NE AND WED 
LATER ON WED. TWO OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TO
THE W ON WED AND THU. A RATHER SHARP WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

GAP WINDS...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 0000 UTC THIS EVENING
REVEALED THAT WINDS HAVE LESSEN TO JUST BELOW 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. ALSO SHIP WITH CALLER ID "ELXU5" POSITIONED 
NEAR 10.5N87W REPORTED NE WINDS OF 15 KT WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT AT 
0000 UTC. THERE STILL MIGHT BE PULSES OF NE 20 KT WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...BUT SHOULD BE VERY 
SHORT-LIVED.

$$
AGUIRRE