000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 1N80W 4N90W 3N103W 8N114W 6N125W 7N133W 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 116W AND 120W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
125W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF A SUBTROPICAL JETLET AND UPSTREAM OF AN 
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS DOMINATING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A PLUME OF MOISTURE S OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OVER NORTHERN MX AND MOST OF TX. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE 
TO STRONG UPPER WESTERLY FLOW IS FUELING CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER 
OVER E TX. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
ADJACENT WATERS. ELSEWHERE...DIFFLUENT EASTERLIES ARE SUPPORTING 
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ THIS EVENING. 
    
AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS ANCHORED 
OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 29N138W 
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 12N106W. NE-E TRADES OF 20 KT PERSIST SW OF THE 
RIDGE WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. E OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NW WINDS TO THE 
W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ARE 20-25 KT...AND 25-35 KT N OF 
THE AREA WITH SEAS NEAR 13 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE DURING 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WITH AN APPROACH OF 
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

GAP WINDS...THIS EVENINGS HIRES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT HAS WEAKENED 
CONSIDERABLY...DISPLAYING WINDS BELOW 20 KT. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE 
STILL NEAR 9 FT WITHIN THE GULF VICINITY. 

$$
ROBERTS