000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N85W 4N99W 5N110W 5N120W 4N130W 4N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF THE AXIS 88W-90W...113W-119W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 92W-96W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH NRN BAJA
...AND EXTENDS SW TO 26N126W. CONFLUENT FLOW IS PRESENT INTO THE 
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE SPREADING SEWD FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA S
TO 20N AND W TO 137W. A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
NEAR 12N110W WITH A RIDGE W THROUGH 12N125W 11N130W. ANOTHER 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE RIDGE SE TO 7N101W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 105W AND 125W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE ADVECTED AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND FOCUSED IN 
A PLUME WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 14N125W NE TO 
20N118W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA AND NRN MEXICO. A FAST MOVING 
SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION...AND IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING 
WEEKEND WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING 
INTO THE FAR NRN PART BETWEEN 127W-135W ON SUN AND WEAKENING.

TO THE E OF THE ANTICYCLONE...A RATHER SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM SE MEXICO SW TO 9N98W WHERE A COL AREA IS NOTED 
BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ANOTHER SMALLER 
ANTICYCLONE TO ITS E NEAR 8.5N92W WITH A RIDGE TO COLOMBIA. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SW OF THIS ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...WHILE UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS CHANNELED NWD N OF 3N BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE AND 
84W NWD TOWARDS SRN COSTA RICA AND NRN PANAMA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
GENERALLY COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA OUTSIDE THE TROUGHS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVING SSE 15 KT IS JUST S OF THE AREA 
NEAR 1S102W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM
9N-21N E OF 110W TO ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
MAINTAIN RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE EPAC WATERS. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED JUST TO THE SE OF THE SUBTLE
TROUGH.
    
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH CENTER OF 1026 MB IS OVER THE FAR NW PART
OF THE AREA NEAR 29N138W WITH A RIDGE SE THROUGH 23N128W TO 
19N122W. NE-E TRADES OF 20 KT SW OF THE RIDGE WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.
NW WINDS N OF 27N E OF RIDGE TO THE COAST THE BAJA PENINSULA ARE 
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AND 25-35 KT N OF 30N. SEAS MAXING ABOUT 
13 FT ALONG 30N. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT S AS 
THE WEAKENING LOW AND FRONT MENTIONED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH
DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

GAP WINDS...ONLY THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH WINDS NE TO 20 KT IS 
WHAT REMAINS AND SHOULD LAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE