000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281506
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N77W 8N83W 3N105W 4N114W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
85W AND 94W...AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 
120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N118W 
TO 21N135W. TROUGH APPEARS TO BE SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. A BAND 
OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 125W...AND EXPANDS OVER AN
AREA FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 125W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 12N114W WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WWD TO NEAR
10N135W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 105W AND 120W WITH THE 
RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE 
RIDGE AND FOCUSED IN A PLUME WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
14N125W TO 24N112W AND ACROSS NRN MEXICO. 

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS BARELY EVIDENT ALONG 23N92W TO 5N100W. 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W AND 85W IS 
STREAMING NE WITHIN A LOCAL WIND MAXIMA ON THE N SIDE OF A 
TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE LYING E TO W ALONG 9N E OF 95W. OTHERWISE 
THE TROPICS ARE DRY ALOFT N OF THE ITCZ E OF 115W.
    
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1026 MB NEAR 30N135W WITH A RIDGE SE 
TO 16N105W. EASTERLY TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE GENERALLY IN THE 20 
KT RANGE WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. NW WINDS E OF THE 
RIDGE TO THE W COAST THE BAJA PENINSULA ARE IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE...AND 25-35 KT N OF 30N. SEAS MAXING ABOUT 13 FT ALONG 
30N. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT S ALLOWING A 
FRONTAL TROUGH TO SLOWLY DIP INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

GAP WINDS...ALL QUIET IN THE GAP AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
EASTERLY SURGES TO 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB